Canary-Signaled Tactical ETF Strategy compounded at +4.5% a year from 2016-10-21 to 2026-10-02, with a worst drawdown of -16.9% (moderate drawdown). It ranks 5 of 27 re-run strategies by drawdown, shallowest first.
| Max drawdown | -16.9% |
|---|---|
| CAGR (annualized) | +4.5% |
| Sharpe | 0.46 |
| Total return | +54.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY), same period | +321.2% |
| Return ÷ drawdown | 0.27 |
| Period | 2016-10-21 – 2026-10-02 (9.9 years) |
| Risk tier | Moderate drawdown |
| Drawdown rank | 5 / 27 |
Equity curve of a $10,000 start, with SPY dashed.
The worst peak-to-trough fall was -16.9%: a $10,000 account would have dropped to about $8,311 at that point before recovering. The +4.5% CAGR is the annual rate that compounds the start value into the end value over 9.9 years; the return-to-drawdown ratio of 0.27 says how many points of annual return each point of worst-case loss bought. Compare strategies on that pair, not on CAGR alone.
Re-run on 2026-10-04 with the strategy's current code on historical prices — a systematic take on Hybrid Asset Allocation (HAA). Numbers change when the strategy is re-run on newer data. The full write-up explains the rules.
All strategy backtests, lowest drawdown first
Disclosure. Backtests are hypothetical simulations on historical data. They do not include every real-world cost, are not live results, and do not guarantee future returns. Educational research only, not investment advice.