Learn to read a backtest, then check it yourself. AvalonQuant re-runs famous investing methods and its own strategies on decades of past data with the same engine and costs, and publishes the method, the out-of-sample results and the limits alongside the numbers. Backtests, virtual trading and real-money records are kept apart. Education and public records only: no stock picks, trading signals or return promises.
Start the learning path · See the famous method experiments
Learn what backtests, virtual trading and real-money records each tell you, with the basic terms.
How CAGR, max drawdown and the Sharpe ratio are calculated and compared, with a calculator to try them.
Overfitting, look-ahead, survivorship bias and trading costs: the usual ways a backtest gets inflated, and how to check for them.
Read well-known methods and published strategies re-run with the same engine and costs, rules included.
A strategy joins the ranking after 28 days of virtual trading with at least one fill. Until then it is listed here without performance numbers, so a few days of results do not read as a track record. Strategies whose virtual trading observation is paused are listed here too.
Backtest = historical simulation on past prices, not real trading.
| Method | Period | CAGR | Max drawdown | Sharpe | SPY CAGR / drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy at RSI 30 | 1993–2026 | 6.13% | -47.17% | 0.48 | 10.91% / -55.19% |
| Buy the 52-week high | 1993–2026 | 8.84% | -38.44% | 0.70 | 10.91% / -55.19% |
| Golden cross | 1993–2026 | 10.12% | -33.72% | 0.77 | 10.91% / -55.19% |
| Permanent portfolio | 2000–2026 | 6.96% | -16.89% | 0.99 | 9.08% / -55.19% |
| Dual momentum | 1998–2026 | 8.70% | -33.72% | 0.63 | 8.73% / -55.19% |
| 60/40 stocks and bonds | 1993–2026 | 8.63% | -32.20% | 0.82 | 10.91% / -55.19% |
| Sell in May | 1993–2026 | 7.82% | -33.72% | 0.63 | 10.91% / -55.19% |
Decide on the close, fill at the next day's close, 0.1% cost per side, compared with holding SPY over the same dates.
Disclosure. Delayed public analytics for education and research only. Virtual trading and simulated results are not live trading and do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice, a trading signal, copy trading, or customer fund management.